Limitations

Predicting CVD risk


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Over the last few years, the estimation of global coronary and cardiovascular risk is a topic that has received considerable attention, with the focus being placed on prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD). Numerous epidemiological studies (1, 2) have developed several risk prediction models to identify individuals at high risk of coronary heart disease (CHD) or CVD. Among these models, the Framingham Heart Study (1), the PROspective CArdiovascular Münster (PROCAM) study (2), the Systematic COronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE) project (3), the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) (4), and the Italian CUORE project (5) have generated well-known predictive equations derived from large American and European prospective studies. However, these risk prediction models differ significantly with regards to the ethnic background of populations studied, the limited availability of data in women, the risk factors incorporated into the model, and the CVD endpoints considered. In addition, while these risk prediction tools are useful for evaluating an individual’s CHD risk in clinical practice, they do have limitations that must be taken into account.


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1. Wilson PW, D'Agostino RB, Levy D, et al. Prediction of coronary heart disease using risk factor categories. Circulation 1998; 97: 1837-47.
2. Assmann G, Cullen P and Schulte H. Simple scoring scheme for calculating the risk of acute coronary events based on the 10-year follow-up of the prospective cardiovascular Munster (PROCAM) study. Circulation 2002; 105: 310-5.
3. Conroy RM, Pyorala K, Fitzgerald AP, et al. Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe: the SCORE project. Eur Heart J 2003; 24: 987-1003.
4. Stevens RJ, Kothari V, Adler AI, et al. The UKPDS risk engine: a model for the risk of coronary heart disease in Type II diabetes (UKPDS 56). Clin Sci (Lond) 2001; 101: 671-9.
5. Ferrario M, Chiodini P, Chambless LE, et al. Prediction of coronary events in a low incidence population. Assessing accuracy of the CUORE Cohort Study prediction equation. Int J Epidemiol 2005; 34: 413-21.

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