Some investigators argue that it is not the metabolic syndrome that is responsible for increasing CVD risk, but rather insulin resistance state per se (11). Several clinical criteria and cut-off values have been proposed to identify individuals with the metabolic syndrome and each has a different relationship to insulin resistance. A prospective analysis has demonstrated that insulin resistance substantially increases diabetes or CVD risk in people with the metabolic syndrome, but in the general population, risk prediction in the presence of the metabolic syndrome is similar whether or not insulin resistance is accounted for (12). The Hoorn study (13) found that the metabolic syndrome increased CVD risk roughly twofold. This study also revealed that men with the metabolic syndrome—according to National Cholesterol Education Program-Adult Treatment Panel III (NCEP-ATP III) clinical criteria—had similar CVD risk as men with diabetes but less risk than men with prevalent CVD (Figure 1). However, metabolic syndrome criteria that included information on fasting insulin levels were no better predictors of CVD risk than those that did not take this insulin resistance marker into account. Similarly, results from the IRAS (14) revealed that there is no need to measure plasma glucose-insulin levels through oral glucose tolerance testing or insulin resistance measures in order to predict diabetes risk. It is sufficient to identify the metabolic syndrome using NCEP-ATP III or International Diabetes Federation (IDF) clinical criteria. In contrast, data from the Framingham Offspring Study (15) revealed that plasma glucose-insulin levels measured after an oral glucose tolerance test could increase CVD risk beyond that of the metabolic syndrome. However, indirect measures of insulin resistance—such as the homeostasis model assessment formula (HOMA-IR) requiring only fasting glucose and insulin measurements—could not improve prediction of diabetes risk.
Legend: Bars show age-adjusted hazard ratios for 0 (reference category), 1, 2, and ≥ 3 metabolic syndrome abnormalities by NCEP-ATP III clinical criteria, baseline type 2 diabetes, and baseline prevalent CVD status.

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